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Home > News > World > Middle = East

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Power in the Middle East: The new = Pharaohs

Ruler of Egypt for 24 years, President Hosni = Mubarak is=20 about to embrace democracy in the form of a presidential = election.But is=20 his apparent enthusiasm for reform merely a smokescreen to hide = his=20 dynastic ambitions? Anne Penketh reports from Cairo

16 June 2005

Cairo has two distinctive faces. There is Giza, home to the = pyramids of=20 ancient Egypt and the Sphinx that has cast its inscrutable gaze = over the=20 city for 4,500 years. And there is Heliopolis, the jewel of modern = times=20 with its early 20th century Western architecture.

In the twilight of his life, President Hosni Mubarak, 77, is = trying to=20 reconcile the old with the new as he sets out on a journey of = reform. So=20 it is probably not by accident that his son, Gamal Mubarak, = receives his=20 guests in leafy Heliopolis, known as New Cairo, or Masr al-Jedida = to=20 Egyptians.

This 42-year-old banker, who now holds an important position = within his=20 father's ruling party, has become a symbol of modern Egypt, even = though in=20 his self-deprecating way he would probably deny it. When President = Mubarak=20 made his surprise announcement three months ago that he would = allow=20 multi-party elections for the first time in Egypt's 7,000-year = history,=20 the entire country thought that he was preparing the ground for = his son to=20 succeed him.

The Middle East already gave birth to one such political = dynasty, when=20 Bashar Assad succeeded his father, Hafez Assad, after the Syrian=20 president's death. As with Hafez Assad, an entire generation of = Egyptians=20 have known no other leader than Hosni Mubarak, a former air force = officer=20 who has ruled the country under stringent emergency laws in force = since=20 1981.

But while the Egyptian public remains convinced that Gamal is = preparing=20 to step into the shoes of his father, party and government = officials - and=20 Gamal Mubarak himself - are taking pains to nip the rumours in the = bud.=20 They suggest that there would be resistance from the old guard of = the=20 National Democratic Party, and nobody knows how the military, = which still=20 calls the shots in Egypt, would react. "I can't say the NDP is = gearing up=20 to back his [Mubarak's] son," commented one senior Egyptian = official.

But the rumours refuse to die down. According to the latest = report,=20 denied by officials here, Mr Mubarak's half-Welsh wife, Suzanne, = is=20 actively pushing her son - a tall, slim and balding version of his = father=20 - into the political limelight so that she can bask in the = reflected glory=20 of having nurtured two Egyptian leaders. The Mubaraks' elder son, = Alaa, is=20 a businessman and has made it clear that he has no desire to enter = politics.

The glamorous Mrs Mubarak, whose mother was a Welsh nurse, is = no=20 stranger to public life as head of the Suzanne Mubarak = International=20 Movement for Women and Peace, which provides ample photo = opportunities for=20 the Egyptian First Lady. A dinner that she hosted for women on = Monday=20 night in Cairo lured guests from an official UN function, a UN = seminar on=20 the Middle East, much to the embarrassment of the foreign = ministry. She=20 was the one who escorted Laura Bush around Cairo and Alexandria = during a=20 visit earlier this month in which Mrs Bush praised Hosni Mubarak's = "bold=20 and wise first step" towards democracy.

The fallout from that trip is still going on: the Education = Minister,=20 Kamelia Hegazi, was forced to make a statement in parliament on = Monday to=20 deny the government had bussed in students to an Alexandria school = to=20 impress Mrs Bush. Egypt, which has a feisty, free press, is = extremely=20 sensitive to any suggestion of kow-towing to America, despite the = $2bn=20 (=A31.1bn) received from the US each year.

During a three-hour conversation with journalists from the UK = at the=20 military's Sporting Club in Heliopolis, Gamal Mubarak dismissed as = "rubbish" any suggestion that Mr Mubarak's announcement of a = referendum on=20 constitutional reform stemmed from a request from George Bush. = Such=20 reports, he said, were having a negative impact on domestic = opinion, which=20 is increasingly anti-American as a result of the Iraq war.

As he answered questions on all aspects of the Egyptian = reforms, he=20 only showed exasperation when he was asked about his political = intentions.=20 "I have made it clear that I am not putting myself forward," he = said.

He stressed that when he entered politics in 2000 following his = return=20 to Cairo from London, the President had made it clear that "the = scenarios=20 people are trying to present in our own political structure have = nothing=20 to do with reality". What is more, with the change in the Egyptian = constitution which will allow more than one candidate to run in=20 presidential elections, "this notion should be put to bed".

But the notion has not been put to bed because of the = restrictions=20 being placed on parties in the election, which will mean that only = candidates put up by the NDP or by recognised parties can stand - = thus=20 excluding the popular but banned Islamic fundamentalist Muslim = Brotherhood=20 from fielding a candidate. Egyptian and foreign analysts say that=20 President Mubarak's game plan seems to be that the reform of the = electoral=20 law will provide a springboard for his son to run for president in = 2011.

They add that it would not necessarily be a bad thing: Mubarak = Jnr is=20 described as "serious" about change, and is credited with bringing = into=20 government a "dream team" of 40-somethings who have instituted = economic=20 reforms that are rolling back the legacy of the state-controlled = economy=20 dating from the Nasser era. "But he's going to have to be a real=20 politician if he wants to emerge," said a Western diplomat.

All the signs of political grooming are there: Gamal Mubarak, = who=20 worked in London after being educated at the American University = in Cairo,=20 has been spearheading the ruling party's reform programme since he = returned. His policy post has taken him across the country to = "town hall"=20 meetings as he explains the government's plans for change. All in = full=20 view of Egyptian state television, of course.

Gamal Mubarak recognises that sons succeeding their fathers in = the=20 Middle East is an "issue" because of the general unease about = inherited=20 power. He also jokes that it happens in democracies, such as the = two Bush=20 presidencies in the US. But he sticks to the line that at this = point, he=20 does not even know whether his father has decided to run for = another term.=20 And government officials point out that in the next presidential = elections=20 in six years, nobody can predict how many candidates will secure = the=20 necessary backing to run.

In the election in September, predicted one senior official, = Egyptians=20 "will not ask the President to leave his seat because they love = him. Other=20 parties are very weak. For this reason I think that our President = has no=20 challenge." Grassroots support for opening up the political system = does=20 seem to exist, as the debate gathers steam in the press. Until = now,=20 discussion of reform has been confined to the living rooms of = Egypt's=20 "chattering classes".

Ayman Nour, the leader of El Ghad (Tomorrow), a liberal party, = says he=20 can sense that "Egyptians are very thirsty for change" after 24 = years of=20 political stagnation. "We are not pulling the Egyptians after us, = we are=20 late," he says, comfortably ensconced in his eighth-floor = penthouse flat=20 in Cairo again after spending 43 days in jail. Mr Nour is one of = the few=20 opposition candidates who would meet the criteria for challenging = Mr=20 Mubarak in September, although nobody credits him with national = support.=20 The fact that Condoleezza Rice called on the Egyptian government = to=20 release him from jail, after his arrest in January for allegedly = forging=20 signatures in support of his campaign, is likely to lose him = votes, if=20 anything.

If Egyptian officials are to be believed, the Americans have = told the=20 government that they don't mind who wins the elections - the = presidential=20 poll is followed in November by parliamentary elections - as long = as they=20 are democratic. Although strenuously denying accusations of = organising a=20 "sham" election, the government makes no secret of the fact that = it has no=20 intention of allowing Islamic fundamentalists to gain more than = the=20 foothold they already have in parliament by fielding candidates as = independents. They now have 15 MPs in the 454-seat parliament, = where the=20 NDP holds 90 per cent of the seats.

Mohamed Morsy, one of the Muslim Brotherhood MPs who acts as = its=20 spokesman, said that if a free and fair election for parliament = were to be=20 held, his party would obtain 100 seats, or "20 to 25 per cent" of = the=20 vote.

Why is the government afraid to legalise the Muslim = Brotherhood, which=20 now has a new generation of pragmatic leaders such as Mr Morsy = whose=20 mobile phone has an Islamic ringtone of All praise to Allah? = "We're not=20 afraid of anybody," retorts Ahmed Nazeif, the Prime Minister, a = technocrat=20 who brought in the country's first national computerised ID = scheme. "What=20 we are not allowing them to do is create an entity that is based = on=20 religion. It has a history of violence. We're not sure about how = they feel=20 about democracy - if they are given a chance to run a government, = they=20 might not give us the type of democracy that we would all like to = see. We=20 are a secular country, and we want to remain a secular = country."

A senior official made it clear that the government would open = the=20 system as it sees fit, and no further. In the first Bush term, "he = was=20 against terror, and we were with him. Bush II is about this = democracy=20 thing, and we are not with him." As Egypt moves forward with its = political=20 reforms, however, it remains unclear whether the authorities will = be able=20 to keep the lid on mounting pressure for change from the street, = although=20 they say they are confident that the gradual and controlled reform = will=20 succeed. They also reject any comparison with the situation in = such=20 countries as Ukraine, which produced a popular uprising following=20 fraudulent presidential elections. The government is taking no = chances:=20 Egypt's electoral process will continue with the full force of the = emergency laws left in place, ostensibly aimed at "terrorists" but = in fact=20 invoked since Mr Mubarak's announcement in March to round up more = than 900=20 protesters.

The proposed reforms have delighted the members of the small = Kefaya=20 (Enough) movement, led by George Ishak, a 66-year-old retired high = school=20 teacher who has staged a lone campaign for democratic change since = Mr=20 Mubarak came to power. The Kefaya movement, which he founded in = 2003 with=20 a group of seven friends, has a simple motto: Mubarak must go. = Most=20 opposition parties boycotted the referendum on amending the = constitution=20 because it did not go far enough in allowing a challenge to Mr = Mubarak.=20 Despite their call - which was not publicised on state television, = watched=20 by most Egyptians - the turnout was officially put at 51 per cent = and=20 produced an 83 per cent "yes" vote in favour of limited = multi-candidate=20 presidential elections.

Opinions differ as to why the ageing Mr Mubarak, who has = previously=20 ensured his own survival by organising referendums on his = presidential=20 terms, decided to bring in the reforms at this point. Was it a = ploy to=20 open the way for his son, or out of weakness, to save the ruling = party=20 from collapse? There are also questions over his health, after he=20 collapsed in parliament in November 2003.

What is certain is that the push for democratisation from = Washington=20 reinforced the process already under way in Cairo.

The government's main concern will be to ensure that there is = at least=20 a measure of competition in the presidential election so that = Egypt can=20 claim to have held a legitimate poll, in the absence of = international=20 monitors.

And Gamal Mubarak is already looking beyond this year's = elections. "We=20 will continue to reach out, despite some of the difficulties that = have=20 started to surface," he promises. "We're hoping that the election = will=20 send out a convincing message this is a serious process of = change."

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